Methodology · Transparency

How We Measure

The break-even math behind every benchmark you see on this site, why 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-leg tickets get exponentially harder, and how our own model performs against those thresholds week over week.

The 52.4% floor

Sportsbooks price standard sides and totals at -110 — you risk $110 to win $100. The break-even hit rate for that price is:

110 / (110 + 100) = 0.5238… → 52.4%

Anything below 52.4% loses money long-term at -110, and 52.4% flat just pays the juice. That's the number every single-leg pick on this site is measured against — see the Parlay Performance Score and /stats.

Sources: BettingPros break-even guide · Action Network

Parlays compound the bar

A parlay only pays if every leg wins. If each leg is independent and priced at -110, the break-even for the whole ticket is 0.524^N where N is the number of legs.

2-Leg

27.5%

+264 implied

3-Leg

14.4%

+595 implied

4-Leg

7.5%

+1226 implied

5-Leg

3.9%

+2434 implied

The Washington Post analysis of sportsbook parlay economics is a clear read on why the industry pushes multi-leg tickets so hard. WaPo · Parlay popularity · Odds Assist

How SGG is actually doing

Player-submitted, built on SGG. Every slip below was assembled by a real user in the SGG parlay builder and finalized before tipoff — no shadow bets, no hindsight. Model-vs-book performance for the industry platforms (PP, UD, DK, FD, POTD) lives on the analytics grid.

Live grading pulled from every user slip finalized on the platform — 7-day, 30-day, and season windows, per leg count, with break-even as the pass/fail line. Buckets with fewer than five graded slips are hidden as “not enough data”.

Legs	Benchmark	7d	30d	Season
2-leg	27.5%	100.0%(1 slip)	41.4%(29 slips)	35.4%(161 slips)
3-leg	14.4%	0.0%(4 slips)	20.7%(29 slips)	20.3%(172 slips)
4-leg	7.5%	—	14.3%(21 slips)	13.0%(108 slips)
5-leg	3.9%	0.0%(5 slips)	4.3%(47 slips)	7.4%(176 slips)

Beating vigWatchBelow benchmarkNot enough data

Methodology notes

“Won” and “lost” are the only outcomes counted in the denominator. Pushes and pending slips are excluded — they don't settle the ticket either way.
The break-even table assumes independent legs at -110. Correlated markets (same-game props) are stricter in practice — worth watching but not the number the industry publishes.
A per-leg-count bucket needs at least 5 graded slips before we'll color it. Early-season and offseason windows regularly go 0-for-2 without meaning anything.
A drift alert scans every Monday and fires when any bucket sits below its benchmark for two consecutive weeks.

Further reading: ESPN · Billy Walters guide